Hierarchy and War

Project lead: Maël van Beek

Schematic diagram of the main elements of the model and their relationship to one another.

Scholars have written extensively about international order, on the one hand, and war on the other, but surprisingly little work systematically explores the connection between the two. We provide a generative computational network model that explains hierarchical international order and war as two elements of a larger recursive process: the threat of war drives the formation of hierarchy, which in turn shapes states' incentives for war. Grounded in canonical theories of hierarchy and war, the model explains an array of known regularities about hierarchical order and conflict while also exhibiting a surprising variety of emergent properties, such as institutional persistence, balancing behavior, and systemic self-regulation, that are unanticipated by current theories.

Publications:

Braumoeller, Bear F. 2022. "The conflict over Ukraine is a conflict over international order. That makes it nearly impossible to resolve." Washington Post.